THE BIG NULLIFICATION

Nullification is the new word creeping into the talking points and vocabulary of Trump supporters. The word is meant to convey that Trump's enemies are trying to reverse the will of the voters in the 2016 election.  It is a word meant to spin the case against impeachment and its users seek to include it in the conversation as "received wisdom."

A Little Background
In October and November 2016, with the polls indicating that a Hillary Clinton presidency was all but inevitable, the Republican Party was preparing its opposition plan for the following four years. They planned to create a “living hell” for the next president of the United States, vowing not to approve any Supreme Court nominee over the next four years and preparing a draft of articles of impeachment based on “her e-mails and other crimes” shortly after inauguration.

Congressional Republicans publicly floating support for this notion at the time included Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT, Chairman of the House Oversight Committee), Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), and Reps. Michael McCaul (R-TX), Louie Gohmert (R-TX), Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) and Peter King ((R-NY), among others. In late October and early November 2016, talk radio was all abuzz about the upcoming impeachment. Of course, Candidate Donald Trump weighed in:

"Hillary Clinton is the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency, and if she were elected, it would create an unprecedented constitutional crisis. You know it’s going to happen. And in all fairness, we went through it with her husband. He was impeached. ... Folks, do we want to go through this again?" (Trump rally in Florida, Nov. 2, 2016)

That Republican Party's position was in line with their historical opposition to the presidency of Obama, an obstruction plan fraught on the same night he was inaugurated for his first term. This time however, as opposed as to when Obama was elected in 2008, they controlled the House. 

Representative Chaffetz said about the expected Clinton presidency: “Even before we get to Day One, we’ve got two years of material lined up.” As Chairman of the Oversight Committee he already had several years’ experience on partisan obstruction, having led the investigation of Secretary of State Clinton on Benghazi (in one of seven congressional committee investigations into the matter) and her emails. Then came the surprising victory by Donald Trump, who obtained 46.1% of the vote and 304 Electoral votes, while Clinton had 48.2% of the vote but only 227 Electoral College votes. Rep. Chaffetz left Congress shortly thereafter to join Fox News.

Representing the Will of the Electorate

This talk about nullification brings scrutiny to the way public officials are elected. The “will of the voters” most direct measurement is votes cast and that, perhaps, should be the standard. While the Electoral College is representative of “the will of the voters” in landslide victories, this is not the case for close calls. A recent study by M. Geruso et al, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER, analyzes statistically how the Electoral College is more likely to overturn the will of the voters, so-called “inversions”, in close elections.  That is, the Electoral College is more likely to “nullify” elections than impeachment proceedings, which have resulted in zero removals from office for a president. Inversions have actually resulted in four presidents winning the Electoral College but not the popular vote. It is estimated that 40% of elections in which the popular vote difference is 1% (less than 1.3 million votes in 2016) can result in that outcome, i.e. nearly half. In recent times this has occurred twice, in 2000 and in 2016. It also happened in 1876 (S. Tilden 50.9%, RB Hayes 47.9% - Hayes became president), and in 1888 (G. Cleveland 48.6%, B Harrison 47.8% - Harrison became president)[1].  Furthermore, the statistical analysis as applied to our current electoral demographics and map indicates a 65% chance of any Republican presidential candidate emerging victorious, even when losing the popular vote by a 3% margin.

These distortions of representation “trickle down” to the House of Representatives, but by a different mechanism: Gerrymandering. Over the last 10 Congressional elections, three have resulted in Democratic majorities and seven in Republican ones. The average popular vote resulting in a majority for the Democrats has been 53%, resulting on an average House majority of 55.6%, a two and a half point spread. The average popular vote resulting in a House majority for the Republicans is 49.5% for a House majority of 54%, a 4.5% spread. This spread increased substantially after the redistricting of the 2010 census, as Republican led state houses gerrymandered many congressional districts to their favor.

	Democrat			Republican			All Reps
	Pop Vote	Reps	D Caucus	Pop Vote	Reps	R Caucus
2000	47.10%	212	48.96%	47.60%	221	51.04%	433
2002	45.20%	205	47.24%	50.00%	229	52.76%	434
2004	46.80%	202	46.54%	49.40%	232	53.46%	434
2006	52.30%	233	53.56%	44.30%	202	46.44%	435
2008	53.20%	257	59.08%	42.60%	178	40.92%	435
2010	44.90%	193	44.37%	51.70%	242	55.63%	435
2012	48.80%	201	46.21%	47.60%	234	53.79%	435
2014	45.50%	188	43.72%	51.20%	242	56.28%	430
2016	48.00%	194	44.60%	49.10%	241	55.40%	435
2018	53.40%	235	54.15%	44.80%	199	45.85%	434
Win AVGs	52.97%		55.60%	49.51%		54.05%

(Since 2010, the one D led House had a +0.75% relative to the popular vote, while the R led Houses had an average +5.38 spread)

Voters perceive these representation distortions and react accordingly, because they become voting disincentives. Voter turnout is pushed down by these mechanisms as people think that, after all, their vote will not really count. People in a “Blue” or “Red” State or Congressional District will believe, with logic and reason, that their vote does not make a difference in the final outcome as the Electoral Votes or the party majority in their CD is, essentially, predetermined (“rigged”?). The “Voice of America” is stifled.

 When it comes to presidential elections, the Electoral College has created an institutional monster: “Swing States,” with their “Swing Districts.” These so called electoral battlegrounds result in other regions of the country being almost ignored by the campaigns. Jamelle Bouie has written a well-reasoned argument about the nationwide coalitions of interests that would make it to the national discussion in a campaign, instead of local state issues if it were not because of Electoral College politicking (The Electoral College is the Greatest Threat to Our Democracy). Farmers in Iowa and Ohio have the same type of challenges as those in Kansas or New York, but the latter two are ignored, while the former ones are courted in retail politics. The same happens with urban problems of Atlanta or Detroit, or in the manufacturing plants of South Carolina and California, national issues being addressed in a skewed manner--only looking at the trees, not the forest. Many solutions have been offered to this slow creeping poison in our democracy, which creates divisiveness and apathy simultaneously, from the National Popular Vote Compact, to apportioning by Congressional District (for example Maine and Nebraska), to Constitutional Amendments (of which over 100 have been offered). 

The end result of this electoral model has been simultaneous growth of voter apathy and sectarian divide. The political consequence is the creation of partisan factions which drive the discourse and increased frequency of impeachment calls. We have been seeing this happen over the last twenty five years or so, like a frog in slowly heating water.  

Impeachment as a Political Crisis

The calls for impeachment before the expected victory of Clinton have not been the only instance of Republicans calling for this constitutional remedy. It is significant that during the first two years of Obama’s presidency, with the Democrats controlling the House, national opinion polls found that 35% of Republicans favored impeaching the president, even though there were not any ongoing investigations of any sort. Reasons given for opening impeachment inquiries during the Obama years ranged from the “Climate-gate” email controversy, the methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure jobs, the response to the BP Oil Spill, undermining US security by brokering a prisoner exchange of an army soldier for five Guantanamo detainees, to his “foreign” birthplace; and, of course, Benghazi.

Using impeachment calls as a political rallying cry is a signal of the toxic divisiveness underlying the body politic (more on this) and originated in the poisoned well of faulty representation. Out of 45 presidents, thirteen have had inquiries or resolutions introduced in the House calling for their impeachment, including all eight since Ronald Reagan (Iran-Contra). Typically the underlying offenses have been abuse of power or corruption. The case of Hillary Clinton is unprecedented in that calls for her impeachment were being made before she had been elected. 

The increasing use of impeachment threats based on political interest or bias has cleft the nation into sectarian partisanship. The political discourse and rhetoric has shifted, characterizing opposition sympathizers and leaders as enemies, not just adversaries. This political and sectarian nature of impeachment had been forewarned by Alexander Hamilton:

“Pre-existing factions … [agitating passions and dividing the community] into parties more or less friendly, or inimical, to the accused... [enlisting] animosities, partialities, influence and interest on one side or the other … [result in ] the greatest danger, … [that] the decision will be regulated more by the comparative strength of parties, [rather] than by the real demonstrations of innocence or guilt.”[2]

Differences of opinions on how to reach national goals have been colored by partisan politics, but the primary goal remains: a better and more secure future for generations to come.[3] 

If, as Hamilton feared, the final result is not dependent on “the real demonstrations of innocence or guilt,” we are in for a rough ride descending further into an abyss of sectarian partisanship enmity, as opposed to politically adversarial relationships. The feared trauma to the country associated with impeachment has actually been with us for more than twenty years. This is truly it: we have been living “the trauma of impeachment” far too long.

But if the Trump impeachment results in his removal from office, it may be a sign that the country is beginning to heal from the sectarian sickness vise which grips it, because it will have demonstrated a resolve of purpose beyond partisanship. The blatant and clear unfitness of Trump as president of the United States and leader of the free world allows for a constitutional remedy that forces unity and can bring an end to the dark era of divisiveness. And it is time for it to end.

Some more essays:
On party rule: "A Weak Democracy"

On impeachment: "We'll See What Happens...."

All on Elections and Other Complications of Democracy

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[1] The 1824 election of John Quincy Adams (30.9% of the vote vs Andrew Jackson with 41.4%) is not comparable to the other four, because it was so split between all the candidates that it was decided by a final vote in the House of Representatives.

[2] Federalist 65

[3] Or, as Thomas Jefferson said, “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

All illustrations copyright their respective authors.

WE’LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS....

Note on January 14th, 2021: this essay was written before the first impeachment of D. J. Trump.

There are exceptional occasions when a rare event occurs. Sometimes we are surprised, sometimes bewildered. The rarity of such an event can even make us doubt of its possibility, even when all evidence is there: A Black Swan, an Albino Tiger, an Aurora Borealis. In society we take for granted one of the rarest and marvelous of phenomena: Democracy. Modern democracy, as we know it and aspire it to be, is a Grand Experiment in governance that has been in use by a small fraction of humanity during a brief period of history and, as such, is a rare and fragile institution.

Within the institutional democracy of the U.S. rare events threatening it also occur but the Constitution allows remedies that have made it stronger. The Amendment process is conceived as a defense of democracy, allowing for changes that strengthen the Union. Only seventeen have been ratified since the Constitutional Convention of 1787 (The first ten, the Bill of Rights, were ratified simultaneously with the Constitution in 1789). Impeachment, another rare remedy, was conceived also by the framers as a defense of the Constitution and the democratic republic. The rarity of impeachment makes it uncharted every time it occurs and, in the 230 years from 1789, each time it has been part of a transformative cycle for the Union—especially in the case of a presidential impeachment.

There have been nineteen House of Representative impeachments that have reached the Senate floor for a trial. Of these, two were votes to impeach presidents: President Andrew Johnson (1868) and President Bill Clinton (1998). The rest of them were fourteen Federal Judges, one Senator, one Justice, and one Cabinet Officer. While articles of impeachment were drawn for President Nixon at the end of July 1974 by the Judiciary Committee these were never voted upon by the full House, as his resignation two weeks later on August 9^th effectively put an end to the process. Of all nineteen impeachments trials, eight have resulted in convictions, three ended with the resignation of the accused officer, one was dismissed after expelling the Senator from the Senate, and seven resulted in acquittal, including Presidents Johnson and Clinton.

Presidential Impeachments

The core of the charge against President Johnson was for violating the “Tenure of Office” Act [1]. Notwithstanding the actual charges detailed in the articles of impeachment [2], the animus to impeach President Johnson was largely driven by the President's Reconstruction policies. Johnson went against the reasons and results of the Civil War, pardoned and restored property to former slave owners and mostly gave the Southern states a free hand in governing as they saw fit, resulting in the so-called "Black Codes": separate laws for Blacks and Whites.

The ideological divide between pro-slavery supporters and abolitionists brought upon the country the Civil War, the deadliest American war in history [3]. To heal democracy after such a catastrophic event the spectacle of the blood spilt was not enough. After the war, President Johnson’s administration tried to once again impose inequality upon the freemen, making efforts to restore the superiority of the slave owner class to its former (narcissistic) glory. These policies and laws supported by Johnson led to his impeachment as part of the healing process to excise this political poison from the system. 

The House voted to impeach President Johnson on February 24^th 1868, the Senate started trial on March 5^th and on May 16^th the final vote was held acquitting the President, a three and a bit month process. President Johnson was acquitted by a single vote (35 votes for conviction, 19 for acquittal, one short of two thirds). In spite of the opposition party having more than enough seats in the majority to convict, seven of them voted to acquit in order to “protect the office of president and preserve the constitutional balance of powers.” As one of them said later: “I cannot agree to destroy the harmonious working of the Constitution for the sake of getting rid of an Unacceptable President.”  

The process against Johnson and the constitutional questions arising from it gave the final push needed to ratify the XIVth and XVth Amendments, that other rare remedy to salvage the ideals embedded in the Constitution. These amendments, along with the XIIIth, are the so-called "Reconstruction Amendments" abolishing slavery and establishing equal protection, citizenship and voting rights, regardless of race. The initial push for them was the infamous Scott v Sanford decision of 1857, by which the Supreme Court interpreted the Constitution did not grant citizenship to black people, whether slaves, former slaves or never slaves [4]. The two latter amendments were ratified towards the end of Johnson's first term (1868 and 1870; the XIIIth was ratified in 1865). Andrew Johnson did not run for reelection and is generally considered to have been one of the worst presidents in the history of the United States.

During his second term, President Clinton was charged with lying under oath to a Grand Jury and with obstruction of Justice, both charges related to his attempt to deny, hide and minimize a sexual affair with Monica Lewinsky, a White House intern at the time. The affair had been uncovered by Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr who had a wide latitude and budget to investigate the president and all of his actions and behaviors prior to and during the presidency. The inquiry was started on October 8^th  and the vote to impeach was held on December 19^th, 1998. The Senate trial began January 25^th and the final Senate vote acquitting the President was held on February 9^th, 1999, approximately four months for the process. President Clinton was acquitted on both charges, on the first article by a 55 for acquittal to 45 for conviction vote (including 10 Republicans) and on the second article by a 50 to 50 vote.  At the time, the Republican Party held a majority in the Senate, 55 (R) to 45 (D) seats. President Clinton was subsequently disbarred and he and his wife, Hillary, have lived the political consequences of his impeachment and trial to this day.

Having impeachment as an extraordinary remedy option is a problem in and of itself. The existence of the threat of impeachment is a commonly brandished political tool [5]. It is significant that in both historical instances of presidential impeachment trials, the opposition party held the majority in the House and the Senate. If President Nixon had stood trial, the opposition also had a majority of the Senate at the time, but not enough to convict. Only after Senate Republican elders met with the president to let him know that a large fraction of their caucus would not support him did Nixon resign to avoid a public spectacle of his crimes, misdeeds and abuses—and disgrace by conviction.

Those three instances highlight the political nature of this remedy. Only when Congress had an opposition party majority did the process occur, and even then it resulted in acquittal or stopped short of a trial. The actual removal from office and disqualification to further hold high office of a sitting president may be as rare as a snowstorm in South Florida. Calls for impeachment, though, are routine and most presidents have heard them, perhaps sometimes influencing policy and political decisions.

Separation of Powers: Essential in Democracy

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is right on this: policy disagreements on immigration, gun-control, taxation, climate, health care, trade and judge selection, among others, are not impeachable offenses and should be taken up at the ballot box. Petty lying and bluster is not impeachable. But abuse of power is, as are obstruction of justice, corruption and subversion of national security [6]. Congress is almost constitutionally bound to bring articles of impeachment on these grounds, if found credible through the inquiry, to keep itself as a viable separate branch of government and not become a presidential partisan rubber stamp of this and future administrations. Given the facts and documentation at hand in the case of Donald Trump, the House of Representatives has been left with little choice: it must open an impeachment inquiry. It will also likely do its prescribed duty to defend the Constitution and vote to impeach. The impeachment threat as a political tool does not lead to better policy making, it leads to polarization; that is why the impeachment process as a constitutional remedy is such a grave matter. 

Defending the Constitution and its core principle of separation of powers is the only way to ensure the continuation of democracy and stop absolutism. Over the last three years, an increased pattern of behavior, actions and orders by the executive branch (and glossed over by an increasingly compliant Congress and Judiciary) has undermined the accountability achieved by the separation of powers and established dangerous precedent. Voters in 2018 did not take this lightly, passed judgment on such behavior, actions and orders, and voiced through the ballot box their opposition to administration policies which are trying to undo years of bipartisan progress.

What will happen in the Senate is anyone’s guess at this point. Of the incumbent Republican Senators running for office in 2020, several primary candidate filing deadlines come up in November and December, and many more in early March. The threat of a primary challenge is one used against many congressmen, but the timeline for a possible trial that goes past the filing deadlines will free many of the Senators from that threat. At that point their political survival may rest on whether they want to link themselves or not with an impeached president whose dirty laundry is aired on trial. As the impeachment processes of presidents Johnson, Nixon and Clinton demonstrated, the political damage to the impeached and his or her allies is substantial and will last for a long time, even if acquitted or never tried.

As political strategy, to use an impeachment timeline to their advantage, Democrats will (or should) carefully craft precise articles of impeachment and vote for them after the winter recess, possibly even late January. Conversely, for the Trump Republicans, the quicker the process unfolds the better, hoping for poorly drafted partisan articles of impeachment that will allow them to summarily dismiss the charges by a simple majority vote in December or earlier, threatening primary challenges to those on the fence who may not toe the (Trump) party line. As the two previous impeachment trials and Nixon’s case have shown, party allegiance is not necessarily an indicator of the final vote, but each situation has been different. As Trump is fond of saying (and could probably be the title of an autobiographical book he will not write a word of): We’ll See What Happens.

Urgent Need for a Structural Systemic Remedy

After 230 years of Constitutional rule and 150 years since the Johnson impeachment, there must be something wrong with a democracy that attempts to impeach its president twice in twenty years. There is a national divide that makes this political solution seem more available now that it had been in the previous 200 years. The impeachment remedy is a symptom of something deeper, which makes us turn our insights once again towards that core constitutional principle: representation.

A recent analysis (by M. Geruso et al at the National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER) on elections from 1836 to 2016 and reported by Stephen L. Carter in Bloomberg) demonstrates that the probability of an “inversion” – an election resulting in the winner of the popular vote losing in the Electoral College – is 65% in a close election, two out of three of those elections; and all polling shows us how closely divided is the general electorate. When we further observe that in the elections for the last 10 congresses, most of these have resulted in a disproportionate majority of representatives being elected by a minority of voters [7], it is no wonder that the Electoral College and Gerrymandering have resulted in increased political polarization and divisiveness within the political dialogue of the country.

The case of Andrew Johnson’s impeachment shows that the healing was not only in the exorcising of the demons which he manifested in speech, laws and policy to perpetuate the hateful rhetoric of slavery and racism. The other Constitutional remedy, amending, was also necessary. In order to obtain better results from the Grand Experiment, it is time for the political manipulation of “Swing States” and Gerrymandering to be put to an end. 

A Constitution that states in its preamble that we strive for a more Perfect Union is the instrument for such a goal. It is time to recognize our current crisis as a unique "Black Swan Event" bubbling since the 1990's and finally brewed in the negative energy and divisiveness personified by the current president. The nation must take steps to weed out the roots of the corrosive divide that ails it before it is too late and falls deeper into the populist trap leading to its destruction. As was the case with the "Reconstruction Amendments" true representation must be clarified and cemented into the nation's charter to rectify and set a new course. We must go beyond the juncture of a single bad administration or politician and amend, transform and strengthen the rare and fragile nature of our democracy.

[CJR Note: for those observant ones, the four period ellipsis in the title is intentional]

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[1] The Tenure of Office Act, a law restricting the firing of certain high level executive branch officers without consent by the Senate was repealed in 1887. In 1926 the Supreme Court referenced that law in another case, stating that it was probably invalid. This Act, if it had been challenged in court, most likely would have been struck down as unconstitutional, as it interfered with the separation of powers. It is possible that some of the Senators voting for the acquittal of Johnson took the long view on this, considered impeachment over a possibly unconstitutional law dangerous and voted against the party line because of that.

[2] During President Johnson's trial, the charges defined “An impeachable high crime or misdemeanor is one in its nature or consequences subversive of some fundamental or essential principle of government or highly prejudicial to the public interest, and this may consist of a violation of the Constitution, of law, of an official oath, or of duty, by an act committed or omitted, or, without violating a positive law, by the abuse of discretionary powers from improper motives or for an improper purpose.” 

[3] The estimated number of casualties of the Civil War is approx. 655,000, or 2.1% of the population at the time. By contrast, the total American casualties in WWII, the deadliest war in the history of mankind, was around 405,000, or 0.38% of the population.

[4] The language of the Scott v Sanford decision ruled that black people "are not included, and were not intended to be included under the word 'citizens' in the Constitution, and [blacks] can therefore claim none of the rights and privileges which that instrument provides for and secures to citizens of the United States."

[5] It may be remembered by some that, as part of the 2016 campaign, the threat (and "trauma") of impeachment was levied against candidate Hillary Clinton. It was said that congressional Republicans were ready to draw articles of impeachment against her on the grounds of "her emails" if she was elected and introduce them right after she was sworn in.

[6] Conducting secret foreign (or even domestic) policy to advance personal interests can lead to potential leverage (blackmail) by foreign nations, leaders or businesses who may then threaten to expose such illegal actions. It is very likely, for example, that Russian intelligence officials knew the contents of the July 25^th phone call to Ukraine before the American public did.

[7] On average, Democrats to achieve House majorities have needed 53% of the vote, resulting in a 55% majority of Representatives three out of ten times, while Republicans only needed 49.5% of the vote to obtain a 54% majority of Representatives seven out of the same ten times.

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...A MORE PERFECT UNION

“I Don’t Want to Change the Constitution”

With those words, a woman recently argued to me her reason for not signing a petition to ban assault weapons. The amazing lack of historical context and perspective the gun manufacturing lobby has been able to insert into the collective psyche of a sector of our society is overwhelming. I must comment.

The Constitution’s preamble starts with “We the People of the United States, in order to form a more Perfect Union…” stating thus, from its beginning, that imperfection is a constant and the search for perfection eternal. That would mean that amendments and clarifications may be required—and currently there are twenty seven.

The structure of the U.S. Constitution is particular in that it is one of, if not the only one, that does not directly address the rights of citizens in its main body, only the way government should be structured or, well, constituted. Articles 1 to 3 establish the branches of government, the fourth the relationships between the states, the fifth is on amendment procedures, the sixth and seventh on transitional and ratification procedures—and that’s it.  Seven articles relating to how to establish a central federal government out of a federation of states; and then there is the Bill of Rights: a separate document discussed and approved at the same time as the body of the Constitution in September of 1787 and ratified by the States in 1789. It is not even until the Fourteenth Amendment, ratified in 1868, that the question of who is a U.S. citizen was clarified.

By constructing the founding document this way, the framers allowed the structure of federal government and states to maintain stability while at the same time establishing separately the individual and collective rights that regulate civil interaction between the members of their society, rooted in past tradition and common law, and which may or may not change in the future; and this latter one is an important point. The Constitution as originally written, for example, includes the following:

“No Person held to Service or Labour in one State, under the Laws thereof, escaping into another, shall, in Consequence of any Law or Regulation therein, be discharged from such Service or Labour, but shall be delivered up on Claim of the Party to whom such Service or Labour may be due.” (Art. IV, Sec. 2)

Other provisions in the Constitution, listed in Article 1, establish the existence of “free Persons” and that those who are not count as three fifths or not at all: “Indians not taxed.” This implicit consent and ratification of slavery and race inequality within the body of the constitution was changed with the ratification of the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865, seventy six years after the Constitution and the Bill of rights were written. As a supplement, the Fifteenth Amendment prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race or previous servitude (slavery). Those two amendments “changed the constitution.”

Has the Constitution “changed” in any other ways? Article 1 establishes that Senators are to be chosen by the legislatures of each State. In 1912 the Seventeenth Amendment established that Senators would be directly elected. Some amendments should not have been a constitutional issue, such as Prohibition (Eighteenth Amendment), properly repealed in 1933 by the Twenty first Amendment. We are striving for “a more Perfect Union,” after all, so imperfections are allowed.

In 1919 it was determined that the word “Person” in the constitution included women, and the right for women to vote was proclaimed in the Nineteenth Amendment, technically a clarification, not a change –which means clarifications are allowed.

The Second Amendment

Having established that the Constitution can be changed or clarified, the third important caveat is the issue of interpretation. For this, we may look into the most significant Supreme Court ruling affecting the “right to bear arms” as expressed in the Second Amendment: DC v Heller. A selection of quotes from the majority opinion of the decision reads as follows:

“The term [Arms] was applied, then as now, to weapons that were not specifically designed for military use and were not used in a military capacity” (Opinion, p. 8)

“Like most rights, the right secured by the Second Amendment is not unlimited (Opinion, p. 54)

“[Nothing about] our analysis suggests the invalidity of laws regulating the storage of firearms to prevent accidents” (Opinion, p. 60)

“Assuming that Heller is not disqualified from the exercise of Second Amendment rights, the District must permit him to register his handgun and must issue him a license to carry it in the home” (Opinion, p. 64)  [1]

On page 55, the opinion argues that discussion on the right to possess military style weaponry as part of a civil militia as pointless—at the same time that it ratifies (once again, as before in several parts of the text) the existence of such things as “lawful weapons,” whereby, it follows, “unlawful weapons” can exist.

On page 57, the opinion argues that handguns are more effective for self-defense than long guns.

On pages 58 and 59, a short discussion on licensing is made, letting the licensing requirements stand, but not addressing the licensing issue per se, as both the Respondent (Heller) and Petitioner (DC) agree that licensing of firearms is permissible. Justice Breyer’s dissent makes this last point forcefully.

The body of the decision relates to the meaning of the Second Amendment. One of the most contentious stipulations is that the text of the Amendment is divided between a “Prefatory” and an “Operative” clause, meaning that what it says before the second comma is essentially meaningless. That is the heart of the opinion of the majority and addressed by most of the dissent by Justice Stevens, centered on the importance and weight or not of the phrase “well-regulated militia” and each word therein. Long discussions, ink and bytes have been spent on that argument and we will not go into that in this writing. [2]

Justice Antonin Scalia, a self-described “originalist” wrote the majority opinion, so the words are his. It is understood then that making military-style weapons unlawful for civilian use [3], background checks, safe storage and licensing laws would be consistent with DC v Heller. However, Heller is an opinion and interpretation of the Second Amendment that has been (mis)used by the gun manufacturing lobby to extend its market unlimitedly and dangerously. Justice Scalia, outside the opinion, was vocal about extending gun ownership. He even said once, while being interviewed by Chris Wallace, that people could conceivably be allowed to purchase and legally have rocket propelled grenade launchers (a.k.a bazookas); but within the confines of the court and his most significant opinion on gun rights, reason mostly prevails.

Having common sense gun laws is not changing the Constitution. Making weapons of mass murder illegal falls within the framing of the Constitution. Licensing and registering is constitutional, and weapon use and ownership can and should be licensed and registered. The gun manufacturing lobby has hijacked the Second Amendment and used it as a marketing tool. It is they that undermine the Constitution.

Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution makes clear that no federal armed forces have authorized funding except for a maximum of two years, suggesting the framers did not want a federal level permanent armed force. If claims of faithfulness to the intention of the framers were to be taken at face value and no interpretations or corrections allowed, as “originalists” claim, the United States would not have a standing army. The US Army would instead be the “well regulated” militias referred to in the Second Amendment and would look a lot more like Switzerland’s where, in fact, it is a well-regulated militia (follow the link to see what that looks like) in charge of its national defense [4]. This same section 8 calls for the establishment of a Navy, with no specified timeframe, so the actual intention of the framers can be described as murky at best, but it has been adapted to the realities of modern life and economic reasoning of large capital investment in defense related assets (which would have been the case of the Navy at the time, for example). Amendments, clarifications, interpretations and corrections are part of “the Grand Experiment” of democracy undertaken by the United States, in search of a More Perfect Union.

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Other essays on the issue of gun control:

ACCESS AND CONTROL, December 16^th, 2012 (first reaction to Sandy Hook).

GUNS AND US – A CALL FOR ACTION, February 21^st, 2018 (first reaction to Parkland)

MARCH 24th – March for Our Lives in Parkland, March 29^th 2018

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[1] - Justice Scalia writes: "Before this Court petitioners have stated that 'if the handgun ban is struck down and respondent registers a handgun, he could obtain a license, assuming he is not otherwise disqualified,' by which they apparently mean if he is not a felon and is not insane." (Opinion, p. 59). Implicitly he is consenting to background checks.

[2] -  Let us mention, however, that in the section dedicated to explain the so-called Prefatory Clause, "Militia" is argued in a page and a half, while “well-regulated" is dismissed as an adjective that "implies nothing more than the imposition of proper discipline and training". Even in this glossing over, Scalia cites a dictionary of the time (Rawle) that would reaffirm the intention of the word "('Regulate': 'To adjust by rule or method')". "Security of a free state" is analyzed over one page. The majority opinion itself is 64 pages long.

[3] - The use of “Assault Weapons” or “Military Style Weapons” are euphemistic terms that normalize a tool designed to be used efficiently for mass murder and maximum damage. It is preferable to call them what they are: “Weapons of Mass Murder.”

[4] - The debate on standing armies and militias as well as their adscription to either the federal government or the states was extensive and can be appreciated in the Federalist Papers, particularly 29, as well as in the DC v Heller opinion and Stevens’ dissent. Alexander Hamilton makes an extensive case explaining regulated militias, Justice Scalia seems to water down the interpretation of what “well-regulated” means, while Justice Stevens perhaps overreaches.

Photo copyright belongs to its owner: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images. Originally found here

FOR OTHER WRITINGS ON GUN CONTROL BY CJ RANGEL GO TO: BESEIGED BY GUN VIOLENCE

LET'S TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

With Labor Day upon us a new election season gathers, threatening a new storm of accusations, fears, insults and lies hurled from the candidates upon the electorate to qualify or disqualify one another in the fight for the White House. In the tradition of generals fighting the last war, the notion of “it’s the economy, stupid” keeps in the core of campaigns, and murkiness and misconceptions drive them around this issue as it did in 2016, with the result we all know. That famous motto of Bill Clinton’s (and James Carville) probably should now be updated to “It’s NOT the economy, stupid”. That is because for most, of the beautiful economy of the last 9 years there has been little left to show. That is why we must talk about the economy.

It is unmistakable that there is a malaise in the economic life of most Americans. The gut of many wrenches every month as bills accumulate and money seems tighter. But media pundits and many in government say all economic indicators are better than they have been in many years: unemployment low, continued GDP growth no blips, inflation tamed, low interest rates, stock markets ar all time highs... all indicators shiny green—or are they? 

To fixate on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index as an indicator of the economy skews the perception of the most mundane of everyday concerns: money in the pocket (let’s call it “disposable income”). Using the DJIA as a sign of success or failure of any given decision, policy, or even tweet, affecting the economy is attention grabbing, but does not address that malaise, which makes for most folk such glee over the markets mostly irrelevant to their daily lives. It is true that the DJIA or S&P 500 indices can serve as boosters to consumer confidence, an important component of the economy at large and, obviously, if all corporations went out of business all of the sudden (not necessarily predictable by the DJIA) it would be a bad thing but, at some point, well… you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. Underlying resentment over the perceived indifference of politicians and pundits rises, and populism with it. And populism, yes, is bad; but that is not what this essay is about.[1]

Where Opportunity Hits the Road

Let’s do some numbers: In the US, in real terms since 1979, the GDP has increased 290%, while the S&P and the DJIA increased 832% and 893%, respectively. At the same time and over the same period, for women in the 90^th percentile (the top 10 percent) wage growth was 67%—and that was the best performing demographic. For men in the 50^th percentile it actually declined, with wage growth being MINUS 5% since 1979. For men in the 10^th percentile (the bottom 10 percent) it declined even more, by 13%.[2]

The disparity between GDP, the DJIA and the S&P with the wage growth numbers is one of the critical reasons for the increase in that gut feeling that there is something fundamentally wrong with the economy, regardless of the rosy and highly publicized indicators. This would suggest that the common trope that what is good for “the markets”, meaning stock indices, is good for the economy must be questioned.

What drives a stock price and the indices the most? That is a simple answer: profits. Profits in turn, can be created by a few factors. The most direct one is by selling more at a lower cost. The selling more part is what GDP measures: the sum of transactions in the consumption of goods and services, plus exports minus imports. So GDP growth is good for profits; interestingly, a decrease in imports is too, but not necessarily for everyone. If imports become more expensive, besides impacting that formula with a bigger negative number, businesses relying on imports in order to create the same number of domestic transactions will see their costs rise. This may be reflected in a price increase to protect their profits, which in turn may reduce demand—the number of transactions (the GDP). So a rise in the cost of imports, whether by currency weakening, tariffs or scarcity, will impact the stock price of companies dependent on imports, of which retailers in general and many consumer good companies make a significant number. Walmart and Apple, for example, fall under those categories.  But the Trade War’s recent impact on the stock indices does not explain the long running economic dissatisfaction that sweeps the nation, a dissatisfaction that elected Donald Trump with his line that struck a chord directly addressing it: “what have you got to lose?”[3]

That a “left behind” part of the electorate saw in Trump a change from the past economic success of America is understandable. That such an electorate may turn to populism is understandable; and the failure to address that populist sentiment is a danger to democracy – not only in the US, but worldwide. The 2016 Fall of Discontents that made Trump the 45^th President had its long planted seeds in the entrenchment of economic power in direct conflict with one of the main tenets of capitalism: renewal. Entrenchment is the sand in the gears that slows down renewal. Renewal is what creates new industries, what transforms economies. Entrenchment will try to buy itself tax breaks, subsidies and favorable policy. Opportunity, the path towards success, is fed be renewal; entrenchment stifles opportunity, generating inequality.

Labor's Toil and Troubles

Entrenched economic power has a survival stake – it does not want to leave that trench, it does not want to get “renewed”. To survive, its stakeholders will make sure that their economic power is strengthened using every tool at their disposal. These include lobbying for tax breaks, “corporate welfare”, and policies that weaken any potential replacement – i.e. making sure government policies choose them as the “winners.” As a corollary, they need to reduce opportunity for newcomers, those outside their circle and bubble. This means education, health care and social safety nets that allow for personal growth and capital accumulation beyond mere water treading must be limited or curtailed, because all represent a long term threat to their entrenchment.

The survival instinct of those stakeholders, the economic elite known as “the 1%”, dictates that strengthening of their economic power is fundamental. Returning to that profit factor leading to higher stock prices, the cost element has been a long time driver. The clear way to reduce costs is to focus on one of its largest components that can be most easily controlled, wages. The underlying explanation to the rise in inequality is a simple one: the growth in productivity and GDP has been faster than the growth in real wages. This has resulted in gainfully employed people in major corporations needing public assistance (at the same time that these corporations get tax breaks, making such public assistance a burden on the national debt) and needing to find “gigs” to help them make ends meet.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that many people are working more than one “job,” but the official number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that such cases represent less than 5% of the labor force. The caveat is that this number is a self-reported one. Clearly if someone who is working at a retail giant as a greeter or similar and also drives car owners to-and-from the service dealer they have two jobs and will say so when surveyed by the BLS—maybe. But, how about a person driving for Uber and Lyft, Door Dash and Grubhub? Does that person report they have four jobs or one: self-employed contract driver? Or the teacher that also babysits or tutors, the latter jobs sometimes associated to “homemaker activities” and not counted in the GDP? Or the professor that occasionally consults or writes a book? Or the waiter that writes a screenplay? Do they all say they have more than one job? Even if for some it may be a critical part of their income or careers and could be exclusive of each other?[4]

Not to mention the increasing need of families for multiple incomes. When “America was Great!” the need for more than one family member to supplement income was much less than it is now. The need, not option, to have more than one income from multiple household members has increased over the last thirty years, within the memory of many. It is not so common now for most to enter their house saying “Honey, I’m home!” anymore. An unintended consequence of incorporating women to the labor force, a clear trend from the mid ‘60s to the mid 90’s, has been a downward pressure on wages as the gender pay gap was successfully used by corporations and employers to boost their bottom line. The labor participation rate (people of working age employed or looking for employment) peaked in April of 2000 at 67.3%, climbing from 58.10 % in 1954, and now stands at 62.9%.

One more economic wool on the eyes that needs to be pulled off is the issue of 401 (k) plans. Recently the president asked a crowd after an upward swing of the DJIA “so, how is your 401(k) doing”? The suggestion that the 401(k) plans compensate loss of wages for most is absurd and perpetuates the myth that the stock market gyrations actually reflect everyone’s pocket. The average person with 401(k) in the US has a nest egg of less than $93,000, those approaching retirement age average $200K and, according to the US Census Bureau, less than 32% of Americans actually have one. This is not an economic safety net, and it shifts the burden of future wellbeing responsibilities from employer to employee. The surge of IRAs and 401 (k) plans coincides with the demise of the unionized labor force and private pensions, all elements giving major corporations a way of reducing costs associated with their labor force.[5]

To reverse this inequality trend in the country is nearly impossible, given the structure of our economy, but some lessons from other countries may be helpful on how to address the growth in inequality in a free market economy: building a strong social safety net.

What Ever Happened to Socialism?

With the campaign threatening to have a chapter dedicated to candidates accusing each other --"They are all socialists!", "No, you are the socialist", "I am the true socialist!" -- a certain insight into that portion of the debate should be discussed, as distorted hyperbole will surely come from all sides.

Let us talk about Denmark, which has been in the news lately for its refusal to accept the disregard of sovereignty as part of modern international policy. Denmark has a free market economy. It is part of the Scandinavian countries which have grouped their largest companies in the Nordic Nasdaq, which includes Danish companies such as ABB, AstraZeneca, Ericsson, and Maersk. The growth of this market index since 2008 has been 32.79%. In contrast, average wage growth in the same period has been 15.75% or remained virtually flat, depending on the calculation. While a gap exists between these two numbers, it is not as abysmal as the ones we see in the US. The gap, however has given rise to populist “right wing nationalist” movements in various Scandinavian countries and other traditionally considered capitalist economies (the UK, France, Italy, etc.). Is this a failure of capitalism? No. It is when intervention on the fundamental driver of capitalism, renewal, is left to entrenched interests that such failure occurs.

Still, in the Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, all Scandinavian countries far outrank the US. Iceland, on the top of the list, by over 10% and Denmark, the lowest of Scandinavian countries in the Index, by almost 8%. These gaps are greater than the US has over countries such as Kazakhstan, Russia or Bulgaria, for example. By the way, Canada tops the US by 7% in this Index. The significant difference in these countries is that opportunity is not hindered by the extremely high cost (and with personal debt risk) of quality education, or by the risk of financial ruin by a chronic illness or emergency (or simply necessary) operation. Renewal, the driver of progress, has a more fertile ground in a society assisting such basic human development needs than in those who don’t, and is reflected in numbers such as CEO to Average worker salary ratio. In the US that ratio is 354 times the average worker salary. In Denmark, for example, it is 48 times.

Much ink and bytes have been spent arguing about capitalism and socialism. So much so that the terms have become almost meaningless. It is preferable to talk about free market economies and command economies, and these are defined by the outcomes. The Scandinavian countries clearly have by all measures free market economies, and successful ones at that. They also have social safety nets, which some call socialism and perhaps could be qualified as such if that word were not so emotionally charged. The free market nature of the economy in the US is increasingly under question, as the government’s increased use of subsidies, tariffs and directives designed to protect the economic interests of the few is becoming too common. The pattern of a command economy, protecting entrenched oligarchies by choosing winners and losers by executive decree, lurks in such policies.

The best way for an economy to grow is for all members of said economy to develop their maximum potential, because nobody knows where the next great idea will truly come from. A forward looking society wants to have social structures that maximize the opportunities for its individuals. The best way for an entrenched economic entity to stay entrenched is to curtail competition, to ensure no new ideas come out of nowhere to displace it and keep its future as predictable as its past. These are the outcomes that need to be debated when talking about the economy: maximizing opportunity for all or protecting entrenched interests. What will it be? The 2020 election will likely come short of a definitive answer.

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Other essays on the economy, inequality and interpreting metrics and policies: 
"THE GREAT AMERICAN CON"
"THE ECONOMICS OF INEQUALITY - A HEALTHY ECONOMY IS HEALTHY FOR EVERYONE"
Topic area: Inequality, Trade, Economy, Immigration...

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[1] This link is for one of my essays on Populism.

[2]  “Real Wage Trends, 1979 to 2018” Congressional Research Service, July 2019. The numbers are (Avg. Hourly Wage, 2018 dollars):

Women in the bottom 10% $10.07 in 1979 to $10.55 in 2018; Men: $13.84 to $12.00.

Women in the 50th percentile: $15.92 in 1979 to $20.00 in 2018; Men: $25.33 to $24.04.

Women in the top 10%: $27.68 in 1979 to $46.15 in 2018; Men in the top 10%: $43.25 to $59.00.

[3] The underlying message of Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign also was directed towards this malaise, promising “Hope and Change”, and exacerbated by the 2007 financial crisis.  

[4] This, by the way, does not affect the unemployment rate. The employment rate is calculated by determining how many people are working from the total labor force (working or looking for work, as determined by the labor participation rate). It does not matter if that person has more than one job, that person is not unemployed. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the total labor force that is not employed.

[5] The health care debate is often framed in terms of employer benefits. The core to resolve this issue lies somewhere around there.