The Immigrant.

I am an American born abroad: born from an American parent in a foreign land. I have dual citizenship and lived a large portion of my formative years outside the U.S. in a country close to my heart, Venezuela. I have relatives, friends, dear memories and continued interest and involvement with the country where I was born. Its current situation and of those I have left behind pains me greatly. This is a common affliction shared, with different details, stories and backgrounds, by many in the U.S. born in other countries and living here now; and while I am not technically an immigrant I understand, literally, where they are coming from and have an ear attuned to anti-immigrant rhetoric.

That anti-immigrant rhetoric ignores a basic question: why did 42 million people, a number greater than the whole population of Canada or half the population of Germany, decide to migrate to the U.S.? Contrary to the current Republican candidate’s messaging, no country actually “sends” people to the U.S.

Migrants make the individual hard choice of leaving their home country because they see no other way out of their situation, be it political, economic or personal. They believe that in the U.S. they will have a new opportunity to improve and/or protect themselves and their families. They believe such opportunity is lacking in their country of origin. Many make the trip thinking they will go back once they’ve made it (“if you can make it there, you can make it everywhere”) or conditions “back home” have changed. A great majority eventually remains in the U.S. once they have constructed a new life, under new rules and with a reliable social contract. They sometimes try to return and realize, as Thomas Wolfe wrote, “you can’t go home again” as the home they once knew exists no more.

A portion of U.S. born Americans always says before any election that if the candidate they oppose wins, they will move out of the country. Canada has often been the supposed destination, New Zealand seems to be a popular choice this season. No mass migration has in fact occurred after any U.S. elections, but immigrants in many cases have not only chosen but been forced to leave their own country of birth for political, war strife, hardship or safety reasons. The quipped motivation in the “if he/she wins I’ll move to Canada” retort, is augmented hundreds of times over for many incoming migrants. They have truly voted or been forced to vote with their feet. Most have probably not read or know but would empathize with the lines by Emma Lazarus:

“Give me your tired, your poor, 
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

By definition immigrants believe in the promise of America. Their economic contribution is significant and their social contribution incalculable. Many have mixed marriages and there are 36 million U.S. born children of immigrants. Immigrants by the most part do not want to reject their origins and naturally seek fellow expatriates to socialize and live with, maintain their country of origin customs and enjoy the cuisine they miss. That is not a rejection of U.S. values and customs, it is an addition. When their origin values and customs are anathema to those in the U.S. in most cases they and their children adapt, particularly when they feel socially welcomed by their new country. Conversely, the U.S. adapts elements of immigrant culture and makes it our own. Salsa, pizza slices and Chop Suey come to mind as adaptations now natural to the U.S. culture.

The hard numbers of size, scale and factual contribution are clear:

• The Migration Policy Institute calculates, derived from Census Bureau statistics, that the immigrant population (defined as “people residing in the United States who were not citizens at birth”) totals 42.4 million people. That is a little over 13% of the country’s population. For perspective, the African American population is 12.2% of the population and the Hispanic American population is 16.3% (2010 Census). The estimated population of undocumented migrants is around 11.2 million which would make approximately 3.5% of people residing in the country “illegals,” a small minority bearing a disproportionate amount of vindictive political venom and upon which countless ills are laid on. The number of undocumented immigrants has decreased from a little above 12MM in 2008 to its present level and counting.

U.S. Foreign Born Population by Region of Origin. 

Europe Region: 4.8MM

Asia Region: 12MM (East Asia: 3.77MM / So. Central Asia, including India: 3.2MM / West Asia, including Israel: .96MM)

Africa Region: 1.75MM

America Region: 22.3MM (Central America, including Mexico: 14.8MM / Caribbean: 3.88MM / So. America: 2.8MM)

Migration Policy Institute, U.S. Immigrant Population by State and County (accessed Sept 1, 2016)

• The Pew Research Center calculates there are 36 million second generation Americans, of which 20MM are adults, i.e. can vote. Added to the approximately 19MM immigrants that are naturalized citizens it makes for a powerful voting bloc. Even with a 50% abstention rate it would mean almost 20 million votes, enough to swing many an election.  Politicians demonize immigrants at their own peril when driving wedges between long timers and newcomers.

Much ink and bytes have been used to counter arguments laid out by the anti-immigrant rhetoric. In a fact-free reality immigrants (coded as “illegal” to slander a population much greater than the actual 3.5%) are accused of stealing jobs at best and being harbingers of terrorists and criminals at worst.

• Fact is, as has been pointed out, the low end jobs “stolen” usually do not involve language skills (typically crops, dishwashing, abattoirs, gardening, clean up, etc.) and higher end jobs are filled by companies skirting laws and ethics in pursuit of self-interest through legal corporate sponsorships. In 2012, there were nearly 420,000 “removals” by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), of which 228,000 were by border capture (they never made it in) and 190,000 where “interior apprehensions.” During 2012 there were 1.8 million jobs created by the private sector, that is, nearly the same number of jobs were created every month than all “interior apprehensions” for the whole year. Of the total removals, 55% were of convicted criminals--not everyday workers.

• Facts are, as has been repeatedly demonstrated, neighborhoods and cities with increasing immigrant populations have seen decreasing crime over the years. While absorbing a portion of immigrants, members of the Muslim community aid in uncovering terrorist plots, and members of Hispanic communities work with police to better control gangs. This does not mean that there are no bad apples, but the rhetoric paints broad strokes with a wide brush, smearing minorities to reinforce stereotypes.

• The Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy has calculated that undocumented alien residents (“illegals”) currently living in the United States collectively paid $11.64 billion in state, local taxes, sales taxes and government fees in 2015. These do not include their tax withholds which will not be returned.

• GDP is the sum of all transactions in products and services. The contribution of 78 million immigrants and children of immigrants to the market of transactions make for a sizable chunk of America’s GDP.

There comes a morning when the immigrant looks in the mirror and realizes that an American is staring back; an American accepting of differences, striving in the pursuit of happiness, created equal; and troubled by the whipping up of anti-immigrant sentiment. Many have seen and lived such persecution of minorities for electoral purposes in their country of origin and know what it has led to. Thus, when asked, “Is America headed in the wrong direction?” their answer is “yes” because of the celebration of obstructionism, racism, extremism and sheer stupidity in political discourse, its lackadaisical treatment by the so-called mainstream media and the rising influence of fringestream media feeding populist frenzy. The wrong direction. Something I have lived, outside of the American Democracy bubble. I personally know that democracy is not the end of history: we can regress.

There will always be a special place in the immigrant heart for his or her roots. This is human, understandable and not a reason to marginalize. I know of the pain they feel when there is pain in the country they grew up in. Immigrants will support in humanitarian ways and with patriotic fervor the causes they believe in and, in so doing, defend and spread true American values throughout the world. They are the newest Americans. Welcome.

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Links and References

Migration Policy Institute: Where do Immigrants Come From? (Interactive Chart)

Migration Police Institute: FAQ and Statistics

U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin (Census 2001 and 2010)

World Population by Country

Foreign Born Population in the U.S. (U.S. Census Bureau Presentation)

U.S. Deports Families

Deported in 2013

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Deportation Statistics 2015

Pew Research Center: Second Generation Americans (PDF)

Trump's Trade Deals

We have seen a glimpse. Trump, the business man benefiting from Trump the politician. He relished in the thought of more vacationers in Turnberry, Scotland staying in the magnificent lighthouse suites of his Golf Resort, taking advantage of a devalued British Pound. But, if you look closely, other political issues that he so heartily embraces are very good for his pocket. His relentless attack on the Trans Pacific Partnership is not only a populist stance, it is good for the business of his branded products. 

China is the big loser if TPP goes through, as the rest of Asia would be aligned with the US in a commercial alliance, and Trump has repeatedly said in the past that he has made great deals and lots of money with China. Perhaps that is why polls in China are more favorable for Trump that in any other country. But even if he moves from China to licensing his brand to manufacturers in other countries such as Bangladesh, Malaysia, Chile or Peru, his vested business interest is for the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement to unravel. A frequent point Trump does not make or conveniently does not mention is that there is no special trade deal with China to “rip up” unless the US withdraws from GATT altogether.
 

If any portion of Trump’s income comes from Trump branded products he would be affected adversely when TPP countries manufacturing such products are forced to ensure and enforce the following (as Thomas Friedman has pointed out):

 

• Freedom for workers to form independent trade unions, elect their own labor leaders, collectively bargain and eliminate all child and forced labor practices.
• Adopt laws on minimum wages, hours of work and occupational safety and health.
• Halt human trafficking from countries such as Thailand, Myanmar and Bangladesh and require each signatory to improve access for human rights groups to assist victims of trafficking.

Those are real provisions included in the TPP that would impact Trump branded products by raising their manufacturing cost. Provisions with teeth, because if signatories fail to meet them, they would be slapped with tariffs.

Other TPP provisions include, lowering or eliminating 18,000 tariffs and restrictions placed on products manufactured in the US, such as cars, machinery and digital products, to improve US’ access to a billion person market; establish criminal penalties for stealing industrial secrets; recognizing and balancing unfair competition from state-owned and subsidized enterprises; and combat endangered animal part trafficking and penalize overfishing.

There are, however, provisions anathema to some legitimate critics. Pharmaceutical patent protections have been denounced by Sen. Bernie Sanders, for example, as too generous. These provisions restrict the production of unlicensed generics, potentially raising the cost of medicines to the region’s poor. But time limits originally sought by Big Pharma were substantially reduced and quality control increased by discouraging unlicensed and knock-off products.

Opponents also argue that multinational companies can sue governments in venues of their choosing to maximize legal advantages, and cite for example the case of Philip Morris vs Australia using ISDS (Investor-State Dispute Settlement) provisions. Philip Morris incorporated operations in Hong Kong to use tribunal arbiters from that country (China) and sue Australia for damaging the brand when it passed a law forcing plain warning packaging for cigarettes; the suit was eventually tossed out. TransCanada, the corporation behind the Keystone XL pipeline, has threatened to sue the US government, using ISDS provisions in NAFTA, for blocking its project on account of environmental concerns.

Clarification of ISDS rules is important but is not a deal breaker for TPP. Licensing, patents and intellectual property issues have been addressed and Big Pharma did not get all it wanted, just as generic manufacturers did not either. These are true concerns that a global economy needs to deal with. Ignoring the reality of global commerce is not going to diminish its transformational impact on labor markets all around the world. This reality is ignored by any country at its own peril. It is in establishing common rules and practices that global commerce can benefit a maximum of countries while regulating the negative externalities created by transactions carried out under different conditions and resources for each country involved. I addressed this issue before in my book Campaign Journal 2008. The term “Free Trade Deals” in itself is somewhat misleading, as these treaties in fact regulate the unfettered commerce practices creating those negative externalities as opposed to making such commerce more “Free.”

Steel Mfg. Processes as a Percentage of Total Produced

The economics of global trade are relentless, disruptive and heartless. But not more so than those of technological innovation. Old technology jobs give way to new ones and blame can be easily transferred by populists onto other factors, such as “free trade.” At least trade can be regulated, markets opened and facilitated. Technology not so much: as much or more steel is being produced and exported in the US now as ten years ago, but with technologies that need much less labor. More energy needs are being met by cleaner fuels and methods, not by coal. Food is being produced at astronomical rates with many less farmers. These are not jobs that are coming back from China, Mexico or any other place. Secretary Clinton, in an often misquoted statement, addressed the need to recognize this impact of technological disruption on the labor force in a Town Hall in West Virginia: 

“I'm the only candidate which has a policy about how to bring economic opportunity using clean renewable energy as the key into coal country. Because we're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business, right, Tim? And we're going to make it clear that we don't want to forget those people. Those people labored in those mines for generations, losing their health, often losing their lives to turn on our lights and power our factories. Now we've got to move away from coal and all the other fossil fuels, but I don't want to move away from the people who did the best they could to produce the energy that we relied on.”

It is emblematic of populist cluelessness (or cynicism) that Donald Trump gave his anti-trade tirade in a scrap aluminum plant—a recycling plant. Recycling metal was one of the original disruptors, diminishing the need for mining and processing raw ore. It “killed” jobs, and as those workers that took over the jobs of other workers from a technological past cheered Trump on, you can be sure they have enjoyed the estimated thousands of dollars a year saved by each US consumer as a benefit of lowered trade barriers. The US International Trade Commission 2016 report on the Economic Impact of Trade estimates that U.S. consumers have saved as much as $13.4 billion in 2014 from tariff reductions associated with trade agreements. Furthermore it states that U.S. consumers who are either middle income (income between $40,000 and $69,000) or lower income (income less than $40,000) benefit disproportionately from the savings associated with the tariff reductions. Yes, they get cheaper TVs and toasters.
 

The benefits of trade are diluted and invisible, while job losses created by globalization and technological disruption are as visible as a shuttered factory down the street. Early in the Obama administration a lesson was learned. The president in 2009, and at the urging of workers’ unions imposed a tariff beginning at 35% and expiring after three years on tires from China. In his State of the Union Address of 2012 he said “over one thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge of Chinese tires.” However Americans, according to analysts from the Peterson Institute of Economics, paid $1.1 Billion more in tires over that period than otherwise would have been the case (about $800,000 per job “saved”), moneys that could have been used in other sectors of the economy producing jobs. China in turn, slapped retaliatory tariffs on US chicken parts, which cost American poultry exporters an estimated $1B in lost sales. Overall that line in the State of the Union address cost the US economy more than $2B. But a closed tire factory is visible and its unemployed workers are real. And they are voters. And they have unions. 
 

Global commerce will force changes and all stakeholders and grievances need to be recognized and addressed. Ignoring the problem and putting up a tariff wall will not solve the problem nor rescue lost labor. The best way to manage these relentless forces of change is by recognizing them and planning for them, just like you do for hurricanes. Social nets need to be secured, transitional paths designed and equal opportunity ensured to foster innovation and entrepreneurship in the new business environment. As Neil Irwin in the NYT pointed out recently, in Pittsburgh (home to the Pittsburgh Steelers) 5,100 steel mill jobs have been lost since 1990 but 66,000 new jobs in health care have come to the area. Yet, Irwin does not say... those iron workers, were they left twisting in the wind? Many if not most of them are unlikely to have transitioned to the health care sector. Until a satisfactory answer is given to those displaced workers, populist speech such as that of Trump will be music to their ears. To Trump’s own personal economic advantage.

Perhaps David Brooks is right when he says that the political issues of the day can be pictured as having shifted from arguments about size of government to arguments about size of walls. Walls for commerce and walls for immigration. The economic and identity anxieties of a globalized economy are being tapped into both by sincere and by cynical populist politicians appealing to the gut and the heart rather than the mind. Appeals that may be so misleading as to make a small but sufficient percentage of ill-informed voters vote for the word “Leave” in the belief that it means foreigners and other undesirables will be forced to leave and go back to where they came from, not that “Leave” will structurally change their own nation’s geopolitical standing. The term "swing voter" has decidedly now been irrevocably stained. As a wise man once said, you only have to fool some of the people all of the time in order to maintain political life and viability.
 

United States International Trade Commission: Economic Impact of Trade Agreements Implemented Under Trade Authorities Procedures, 2016 Report